Forex News Timeline

Wednesday, March 22, 2023

Natural Gas (XNG/USD) price struggles to keep the previous day’s rebound from the monthly low as global markets turn lackluster ahead of the key Fed m

Natural Gas price retreats after bouncing off one-month low the previous day.Hopes of more energy demand, geopolitical fears earlier allowed XNG/USD to rise.Pre-Fed anxiety joins China President Xi’s failure to confirm more gas pipelines from Russia to probe buyers.Risk catalysts, EIA inventories will be important for clear directions.Natural Gas (XNG/USD) price struggles to keep the previous day’s rebound from the monthly low as global markets turn lackluster ahead of the key Fed monetary policy meeting on Wednesday. Also challenging the XNG/USD price could be the recent headlines from China and the cautious mood ahead of Thursday’s official Weekly Natural Gas Storage Change number from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA). That said, the energy resource remains mildly offered at around $2.44 by the press time. News that Russia will install new pipelines to send more Natural Gas to China joined the market’s hopes of overcoming the banking fallouts to underpin the XNG/USD buyers the previous day. However, China President Xi Jinping did not confirm such an agreement and pushed back the gas buyers afterward. Elsewhere, Japan’s two trillion Yen stimulus to ward off the inflation burden on the citizens, by way of energy subsidies to households, seem to have also underpinned the Natural Gas price before the latest retreat. It should be noted that the recently mixed US data and the market’s hawkish calls of witnessing a 0.25% rate hike from the US Federal Reserve also weigh on the commodity price even if the US Dollar fades the previous day’s rebound from a five-week low. Furthermore, Bloomberg’s news that Italy floats new Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) terminals to overcome Russia-led energy shortage join the hopes of easy winter in Europe to challenge the XNG/USD buyers. It should be noted that the Natural Gas price should witness a rebound in case today’s Fed decision drowns the US Dollar and/or there prevails a huge draw in the weekly EIA inventories, prior -58B. Technical analysis The 10-DMA hurdle surrounding $2.53 challenges XNG/USD buyers even if the oversold RSI (14) joins multiple levels near $2.35-30 to test the Natural Gas bears.

Japanese Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki said on Wednesday, it is “important for forex to move stably reflecting fundamentals.” Additional quotes “Ne

Japanese Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki said on Wednesday, it is “important for forex to move stably reflecting fundamentals.” Additional quotes “Need to be vigilant about the very fast pace that credit concerns spread globally.” “No comment on specific means of BoJ policy, but expect BoJ to work closely with govt and guide appropriate policy steps under new governor.” “Govt watching fx moves carefully.” Market reaction At the time of writing, USD/JPY is dropping 0.08% on the day to trade at 132.38.

USD/MXN bears take a breather around 18.60 during early Wednesday as market players await the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) monetary policy mee

USD/MXN jostles with the 200-EMA, 100-EMA confluence to prod two-day downtrend.Bearish MACD signals, downbeat RSI (14) suggest further declines.Seven-week-old horizontal support appears tough nut to crack for bears.Buyers need successful break of multi-day-old resistance line for conviction.USD/MXN bears take a breather around 18.60 during early Wednesday as market players await the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) monetary policy meeting outcome. Even so, the Mexican Peso (MXN) pair prints mild gains while snapping the previous two-day losing streak at the lowest levels in a week. That said, the convergence of the 100-bar Exponential Moving Average (EMA) and the 200-EMA restricts the immediate downside of the USD/MXN pair. However, the bearish MACD signals and downbeat RSI (14), not oversold, keeps sellers hopeful of breaking the 18.60 support confluence. It’s worth noting, though, that an area comprising multiple levels marked since early February, around 18.50, appears a tough nut to crack for the USD/MXN bears and could restrict the pair’s further downside past 18.60, which if ignored won’t hesitate to portray a slump towards 18.00. It’s worth noting that the mid-March swing low joins the early March peaks to highlight the 18.25-20 region as an extra filter towards the south. On the flip side, the USD/MXN pair’s rebound from the current levels can again aim for the 19.00 round figure before marking one more battle with a descending resistance line from early January, close to 19.20 at the latest. Overall, USD/MXN is likely to remain pressured even if the room towards the south appears limited. USD/MXN: Four-hour chart Trend: Limited downside expected  

The Australian and New Zealand Dollars are bid with the Aussie leading the way ahead of the upcoming US Federal Reserve policy meeting amid easing fea

Bulls eye a break of 1.0800 that opens risk towards 1.0850 as the next stop.Bears seek a break below 1.0750 and the trendline support.The Australian and New Zealand Dollars are bid with the Aussie leading the way ahead of the upcoming US Federal Reserve policy meeting amid easing fears about the global banking system. The bulls are in play as the following illustrates: AUD/NZD H4 chart We have the price climbing out of the bearish trend and on the front side of the micro bull trend formed earlier this week. A break of 1.0800 opens risk towards 1.0850 as the next stop. On the other hand, a break below 1.0750 and the trendline support will leave a bearish bias on the charts for the foreseeable future.   

Global traders aptly portray the market’s anxiety ahead of the all-important Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) monetary policy meeting on early Wed

Market sentiment remains sidelined during a sluggish start to the key week.S&P 500 Futures seesaw around fortnight high, struggle to extend two-day uptrend.US 10-year, two-year Treasury bond yields fade previous rebound from six-month low.Anxiety about Fed’s next move contrasts with risk-positive headlines from banking sector to limit moves on important day.Global traders aptly portray the market’s anxiety ahead of the all-important Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) monetary policy meeting on early Wednesday. In doing so, the market players struggle to justify the latest headlines suggesting the easing fears from the banking sector. While portraying the mood, S&P 500 Futures remain lackluster around 4,040 despite upbeat Wall Street closing while benchmark US Treasury bond yields struggle to extend a two-day rebound from the lowest levels since September 2022. That said, the US 10-year and two-year Treasury bond yields mark a one basis point of downside near 3.60% and 4.18% respectively by the press time. The pre-Fed caution becomes more important this time as the US policymakers are trying hard to push back the fears of the 2008 crisis. Also highlighting today’s FOMC are the recently mixed US data and the market’s hawkish calls of witnessing 0.25% rate hike. It should be noted, however, that major attention is on the developments in the Fed’s dot plot and Fed Chairman Jerome Powell’s speech. Elsewhere, traders witness mixed headlines late Tuesday, after an initial round of optimistic news that favored the US Treasury bond yield and Wall Street. Among them is the news that the US policymakers are discussing ways to surpass Congress to defend the banks and chatters that the First Republic Bank eyes the government’s help and pokes investors. Previously, US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen’s comments gained major attention as she said, "Treasury, Fed, FDIC actions reduced risk of further bank failures that would have imposed losses on deposit insurance fund."  Earlier on Tuesday, Bloomberg shared the news stating that the “US officials are studying ways they might temporarily expand Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) coverage to all deposits, a move sought by a coalition of banks arguing that it’s needed to head off a potential financial crisis.” Apart from the US policymakers, European Central Bank (ECB) Official Martins Kazaks and Dr. Marcel Rohner, Switzerland’s Banking Association Chairman also tried to convince the markets that their respective banking system isn’t on the brink of collapse. On a different page, Reuters came out with the news suggesting geopolitical challenges to the global economy due to China President Xi Jinping’s visit to Russia, which in turn should have probed the risk-on mood. The news also quotes the joint statement accusing the West by mentioning that the United States was undermining global stability and NATO barging into the Asia-Pacific region. Looking forward, the UK inflation numbers and a speech from ECB President Christine Lagarde can entertain market players ahead of the key Fed announcements. Also read: Forex Today: Market sentiment improves ahead of the Fed, DXY resists

USD/CHF has broken the four-day consolidation range and remains steady just above the 0.9200 key psychological mark. The broad-based US Dollar weaknes

USD/CHF breaks consolidation range ahead of FOMC meeting.Investors' focus shifts to upcoming Fed meeting, 25 bps rate hike or pause?SNB policy decision looms next after the Fed event.USD/CHF has broken the four-day consolidation range and remains steady just above the 0.9200 key psychological mark. The broad-based US Dollar weakness emerged after a positive risk appetite, spurred by US authorities intervening to rescue the US banking system. US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen expressed willingness on Tuesday to provide deposit guarantees to all small banks. Considering the ongoing liquidity crunch in the banking sector, the US Treasury Department, Federal Reserve (Fed), and US regulators have prioritized addressing the issue. Various liquidity options have already been proposed, such as the Fed opening swap lines and the discount window, as well as bank deposit guarantees for small banks despite opposition from US senators. These easing measures are likely to exert further downward pressure on the US Dollar. Investors' focus has shifted to the upcoming Fed meeting, with markets pricing in an 85% chance of a 25-basis-point rate hike when the Fed announces its monetary policy decision on Wednesday. Amid this banking crisis, investors are skeptical about the upcoming Fed meeting, with differing views. Following a synchronized global effort to calm the banking turmoil, the market has begun to lean toward a consensus view of a 25 basis point (bps) rate hike. Given that a summary of economic projections was conducted prior to this banking turmoil, attention will be focused on the dot plot and initial remarks from Fed Chair Powell. Fed Chair Powell's press conference will be important to watch, as investors will try to gauge the banking and inflationary outlooks. After the Fed, the Swiss National Bank (SNB) is next in line to deliver its policy decision. Levels to watch  

The NZD/USD pair is demonstrating a solid recovery from 0.6170 in the Asian session. The kiwi asset remained weak on Tuesday as fears of poor growth i

NZD/USD has shown a recovery move from 0.6170 amid the risk-on market mood.The kiwi asset is hovering near the upward-sloping trendline of the Ascending Triangle pattern.Investors should be aware of the fact that responsive buying can be kicked in as the Kiwi asset is at make-or-break levels.The NZD/USD pair is demonstrating a solid recovery from 0.6170 in the Asian session. The kiwi asset remained weak on Tuesday as fears of poor growth in New Zealand refreshed. Analysts at UOB cited “The impacts of severe weather and flooding earlier this year will cloud the economic outlook. Our view is that the economy is likely to experience further weakness ahead. We have lowered our GDP growth forecast for 2023 to 1.3%, from 1.5% previously.” S&P500 futures are showing nominal gains in the Asian session. The 500-US stocks basket futures are expected to continue their two-day winning streak further as United States Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen confirmed that Federal Reserve’s (Fed) new Bank Term Funding facility and discount window lending is working to provide liquidity to the banking system. The US Dollar Index (DXY) has continued its sideways performance around 103.20 as investors are awaiting the interest rate decision by the Fed for fresh impetus. On a two-hour scale, NZD/USD is hovering near the upward-sloping trendline of the Ascending Triangle chart pattern, which is plotted from March 09 low at 0.6105. While the horizontal resistance of the chart pattern is placed from March 01 high around 0.6277. A bear cross, represented by the 20-and 50-period Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs) at 0.6220, indicates more weakness ahead. Investors should be aware of the fact that responsive buying can be kicked in as the Kiwi asset is at make or break level. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) (14) has slipped below 40.00, showing no signs of divergence, and oversold yet. A buying opportunity in the Kiwi asset will emerge it will surpass March 1 high at 0.6276, which will drive the pair toward the round-level resistance at 0.6300 followed by February 14 high at 0.6389. In an alternate scenario, a breakdown of March 21 low at 0.6167 will drag the asset toward March 15 low at 0.6139. A slippage below the latter will expose the asset for more downside toward the round-level support at 0.6100. NZD/USD two-hour chart  

USD/JPY bulls take a breather around 132.50 during early Wednesday, after posting the biggest daily gains in a month the previous day. In doing so, th

USD/JPY struggles to extend the previous day’s gains, the biggest in two weeks, near the key DMA.Clear upside break of fortnight-old descending trend line, U-turn from monthly support line keeps buyers hopeful.Downbeat oscillators, important moving averages keep sellers hopeful; 130.30 appears Yen pair buyer’s last defense.USD/JPY bulls take a breather around 132.50 during early Wednesday, after posting the biggest daily gains in a month the previous day. In doing so, the Yen pair portrays the market’s cautious mood ahead of today’s key Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) monetary policy meeting. On Tuesday, USD/JPY marked recovery from a one-month-old descending support line while posting heavy gains, as well as crossing the short-term important resistance line. However, the 50-DMA seems to challenge the pair’s further upside afterward. Apart from the 50-DMA hurdle surrounding 132.50, the bearish MACD signals and sluggish RSI (14) also prod the Yen pair buyers. Even so, the quote’s successful U-turn from the one-month-old descending trend line and a clear upside break of a fortnight-old previous resistance line suggests that the USD/JPY is well-set to cross the 50-DMA hurdle. Following that, a horizontal area comprising multiple levels marked since mid-February, around 135.10-30 will be important to watch as it holds the key for the USD/JPY pair’s run-up towards the 200-DMA hurdle surrounding 137.50. Alternatively, a downside break of the resistance-turned-support line, near 132.00 by the press time, could mark another attempt by the Yen pair to conquer the monthly support line close to 131.00. It’s worth noting that the USD/JPY bears should remain cautious unless the quote stays beyond an upward-sloping support line from mid-January, close to 130.30 by the press time. USD/JPY: Daily chart Trend: Further upside expected  

Japan Economy Minister Goto crossed the wires and said that they have compiled various price measures and will deploy 2tln Yen of reserves to fund th

  Japan Economy Minister Shigeyuki Goto crossed the wires and said that they have compiled various price measures and will deploy 2tln Yen of reserves to fund these price and covid measures.  More to come...    

In recent trade today, the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) set the yuan at 6.8715 vs. the last close of 6.8788. About the fix China maintains strict con

In recent trade today, the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) set the yuan at 6.8715 vs. the last close of 6.8788. About the fix China maintains strict control of the yuan’s rate on the mainland. The onshore yuan (CNY) differs from the offshore one (CNH) in trading restrictions, this last one is not as tightly controlled. Each morning, the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) sets a so-called daily midpoint fix, based on the yuan’s previous day's closing level and quotations taken from the inter-bank dealer.

The USD/CAD pair is showing a corrective move after failing to extend its recovery above 1.3740 in the Asian session. On Monday, the Loonie asset show

USD/CAD has slipped to near 1.3700 as investors have shrugged off fears of a consecutive 25 bps Fed rate hike.Tighter credit, economic contraction, and falling inflation could lead to rate cuts by the Fed this year.Declining Canada’s inflation indicates that the BoC could continue its steady stance on interest rates.The USD/CAD pair is showing a corrective move after failing to extend its recovery above 1.3740 in the Asian session. On Monday, the Loonie asset showed a solid recovery from 1.3660 after a decline in Canada’s inflation data. Declining Canada’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) data confirmed that the Bank of Canada (BoC) could continue with its unchanged policy stance. BoC Governor Tiff Macklem is keeping its policy stance steady as he believes that the monetary policy is restrictive enough to achieve price stability. However, BoC Macklem has remained doors open for further hikes if the roadmap of bringing down inflation goes south. Statistics Canada reported that monthly inflation has accelerated by 0.4%, lower than the consensus of 0.6% and the former release of 0.5%. The headline CPI softened to 5.2% vs. the consensus of 5.4% and the prior release of 5.9%. Apart from them, annual core CPI that doesn’t inculcate oil and food prices dropped to 4.7% from the previous figure of 5.0% but remained higher than the estimates of 4.6%. Overall, the decline in inflation was quite impressive for the BoC, which has already pushed interest rates to 4.5%. Meanwhile, S&P500 futures are showing a subdued performance after two-day of bulk buying. Investors’ risk appetite is extremely strong as the odds are favoring a consecutive 25 bps rate hike by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The US Dollar Index (DXY) is struggling in maintaining its feet above 103.20 as fears of banking sector turmoil are not faded yet. Also, analysts at UBS are of the view that tighter credit, economic contraction, and falling inflation could lead to rate cuts by the Fed this year.  

AUD/USD is up some 0.1% at 0.6677 as investors' focus moves to a slew of central bank meetings due this week after days of volatility in markets rocke

A break of 0.6680 will put the bulls firmly in play and in a favorable position ahead of the Federal Reserve later today.  The price is at a cross roads on the daily chart. AUD/USD is up some 0.1% at 0.6677 as investors' focus moves to a slew of central bank meetings due this week after days of volatility in markets rocked the antipodeans back and forth between headlines. This has left the technical picture neutral as the following illustrates: AUD/USD daily chart While the price has broken lower and is correcting into resistance, the bullish break of the bear trend counters that bearish bias. Therefore, this could go either way at this juncture. If the price does break the micro bullish trend and out of the ascending triangle, the lows could be a tough nut to crack and a failed break below 0.6550 would be expected to entice the bulls again. A break of 0.6500 will put the bears in control while a break above 0.6800 leaves the bulls in control on the backside of the prior bearish trend. AUD/USD H4 charts Meanwhile, the bears are seen in play on the 4-hour chart.  However, we have a solid area of support here and a break of 0.6680 will put the bulls firmly in play and in a favorable position ahead of the Federal Reserve later today. 

EUR/USD dribbles around 1.0760-70 as bulls take a breather at the highest levels in five weeks on the Federal Reserve (Fed) decision day, following a

EUR/USD grinds near five-week high after four-day winning streak.Receding fears of banking crisis backed hawkish ECB talks to favor Euro bulls.US Treasury Secretary Yellen manages to restore market sentiment, mixed EU/US data gain little attention.How FOMC reacts to banking debacle is the key, 0.25% Fed rate hike is almost given.EUR/USD dribbles around 1.0760-70 as bulls take a breather at the highest levels in five weeks on the Federal Reserve (Fed) decision day, following a four-day uptrend. In doing so, the Euro pair portrays the market’s cautious mood ahead of the key catalysts, as well as shows traders’ indecision amid the latest rebound in sentiment and the Treasury bond yields, not to forget hawkish central bank bias. Global markets witnessed a sigh of relief on Tuesday, after witnessing a risk-off mood in the last few days, as the US policymakers’ efforts to tame the banking crisis gained the market’s acceptance. Among the key developments, US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen’s comments gained major attention as she said, "Treasury, Fed, FDIC actions reduced risk of further bank failures that would have imposed losses on deposit insurance fund."  Earlier on Tuesday, Bloomberg shared the news stating that the “US officials are studying ways they might temporarily expand Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) coverage to all deposits, a move sought by a coalition of banks arguing that it’s needed to head off a potential financial crisis.” Not only the US policymakers but ECB policymaker Martins Kazaks and Dr. Marcel Rohner, Switzerland’s Banking Association Chairman also tried to convince the markets that their respective banking system isn’t on the brink of collapse. Recently, the news that the US policymakers are discussing ways to surpass the US Congress to defend the banks joined chatters that the First Republic Bank eyes government helps to encourage buyers probed EUR/USD traders. It should be noted that mixed data from Europe and the US also test the pair traders at the start of the key day. On Tuesday, Germany’s ZEW Economic Sentiment Index dropped to 13.0 for March from 28.1 in February, versus the market expectation of 16.4, while the Current Situation gauge arrived at -46.5 for the said month from -45.1 prior and -45.8 analysts’ estimations. It should be noted that the Eurozone ZEW Economic Sentiment Index slumped to 10.0 for March from 29.7 in previous readings and market forecasts of 23.2.  On the other hand, the US Existing Home Sales for February marked a notable jump of 14.5% versus 0.0% expected and -0.7% prior. However, the Philadelphia Fed Non-Manufacturing Business Outlook survey gauge dropped to -12.8 in March and tamed the US Dollar-linked optimism afterward. Elsewhere, S&P 500 Futures remain lackluster despite upbeat Wall Street closing while benchmark US Treasury bond yields struggle to extend a two-day rebound from the lowest levels since September 2022. That said, the US 10-year and two-year Treasury bond yields seesaw around 3.60% and 4.18% respectively by the press time. Looking ahead, ECB President Christine Lagarde’s comments could entertain EUR/USD traders ahead of the all-important Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) monetary policy meeting. It should be noted that the Fed’s 0.25% rate hike is almost given and hence EUR/USD bears should eye for hawkish developments in the dot plot and comments to push back banking turmoil in Fed Chairman Jerome Powell’s speech. Technical analysis Although a clear upside break of 50-DMA, around 1.0730, keeps EUR/USD buyers hopeful, a three-week-old resistance line, near 1.0800 at the latest, prods the Euro pair’s further upside.  

GBP/USD's bull run stalls at a long-ended descending trendline originating from the 1.3768 mark on a daily timeframe. This bullish surge is driven by

GBP/USD bull run pauses ahead of FOMC meeting.Odds are rising for BoE’s potential pause in a rate hike.UK CPI data are likely to be overshadowed by the Fed decision.  GBP/USD's bull run stalls at a long-ended descending trendline originating from the 1.3768 mark on a daily timeframe. This bullish surge is driven by broad-based US Dollar weakness amid falling US Treasury yields. Additionally, increasing expectations for the Bank of England (BoE) to pause at their upcoming meeting also support the bullish momentum for Cable. With the bullish bias intact, a convincing break above the trendline could propel the pair toward the twice-tested 2023 high. Downside declines are likely to be limited by the 50-Day Moving Average (DMA), situated below the previous day's low at around the 1.2146 level. A convincing break below this level would likely lead the pair to confront the 21-DMA at the 1.2016 level. The last line of support is observed at 1.1800, beyond which there is a vast uncharted territory. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) signals a higher high providing a support case for further bullish momentum. Market participants are now focused on the UK Consumer Price Index (CPI) data released on Wednesday and the highly anticipated Federal Reserve (Fed) policy decision. The significance of the upcoming Fed meeting is likely to overshadow the UK's CPI data. All key levels will be monitored closely during the Fed event. GBP/USD: Daily chart  

Gold price (XAU/USD) portrays the pre-event anxiety as it dribbles around $1,942-45 on the key Federal Reserve (Fed) Interest Rate Decision Day. The p

Gold price remains sidelined after reversing from multi-day low in the last two consecutive days.Rebound in United States Treasury bond yields previously weighed on XAU/USD before the latest inaction.US policymakers’ efforts to tame fears emanating from banking crisis renew market’s optimism and allow yields to recover.Cautious mood ahead of the Federal Reserve (Fed) monetary policy meeting probe Gold traders with eyes on yields.Gold price (XAU/USD) portrays the pre-event anxiety as it dribbles around $1,942-45 on the key Federal Reserve (Fed) Interest Rate Decision Day. The precious metal traces the United States Treasury bond yields to portray the latest inaction amid a light calendar and the XAU/USD trader’s lack of attention to the geopolitical headlines surrounding China and Russia. It’s worth noting that the receding fears of banking sector fallout seemed to have favored the US Treasury bond yields while bouncing off multi-day low the previous day. However, market’s cautious mood ahead of the Fed’s verdict and the hawkish bets on the interest rate moves from the US central bank appear to rekindle the recession woes and probe the yields, as well as the Gold price of late. Recovery in yields weighs on Gold price United States policymakers’ efforts to ward off banking crisis joined the mixed US data and comments from the Swiss and European decision-makers seem to have underpinned the US Treasury bond yields’ rebound, which in turn probed the Gold price the previous day. The benchmark US Treasury bond yields struggle to extend a two-day rebound from the lowest levels since September 2022. That said, the US 10-year and two-year Treasury bond yields seesaw around 3.60% and 4.18% respectively by the press time. US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen’s comments gained major attention as she said, "Treasury, Fed, FDIC actions reduced risk of further bank failures that would have imposed losses on deposit insurance fund."  Earlier on Tuesday, Bloomberg shared the news stating that the “US officials are studying ways they might temporarily expand Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) coverage to all deposits, a move sought by a coalition of banks arguing that it’s needed to head off a potential financial crisis.” Not only the US policymakers but ECB policymaker Martins Kazaks and Dr. Marcel Rohner, Switzerland’s Banking Association Chairman also tried to convince the markets that their respective banking system isn’t on the brink of collapse. As per the latest banking updates, the US policymakers are discussing ways to surpass the US Congress to defend the banks while the First Republic Bank eyes government help to encourage buyers. Elsewhere, the US Existing Home Sales for February marked a notable jump of 14.5% versus 0.0% expected and -0.7% prior. However, the Philadelphia Fed Non-Manufacturing Business Outlook survey gauge dropped to -12.8 in March and tamed the US Dollar-linked optimism afterward. Gold price fails to justify geopolitical tension surrounding China As the global traders are more concerned with the banking sector updates and the Federal Reserve (Fed), the headlines surrounding China, one of the biggest Gold consumers, fail to entertain the traders. Reuters came out with the news suggesting geopolitical challenges to the global economy due to China President Xi Jinping’s visit to Russia, which in turn should have weighed on the XAU/USD price but could not. The news also quotes the joint statement accusing the West by mentioning that the United States was undermining global stability and NATO barging into the Asia-Pacific region. Federal Reserve action could direct XAU/USD moves Moving ahead, the UK inflation number and speech from the European Central Bank (ECB) President Christine Lagarde could entertain Gold traders ahead of the key Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) monetary policy meeting. While the Fed’s 0.25% rate hike is almost given, XAU/USD sellers should eyes for a hawkish developments in the dot plot and comments to push back banking turmoil in Fed Chairman Jerome Powell’s speech. Also read: Powell to persevere and raise rates, US Dollar set to (temporarily) rise Gold price technical analysis Gold price extends a U-turn from a seven-month-old resistance line towards breaking a fortnight-long ascending trend line to lure XAU/USD bears ahead of the all-important Federal Reserve (Fed) monetary policy meeting. Also making the bearish bias more lucrative is a pullback of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) line, placed at 14. It should, however, be noted that the Moving Average Convergence and Divergence (MACD) indicator flashes the bullish signals and suggest little room toward the south, which in turn highlights the 50-DMA of around $1,883 as the short-term key support. In a case where the Gold price breaks the 50-DMA support, the 100-DMA level surrounding $1,830 acts as the last defense of the bulls. On the flip side, the support-turned-resistance line from March 09 restricts the immediate upside of the XAU/USD to around $1,983. Following that, the longer-term ascending trend line, close to the $2,000 threshold at the latest, will be in the spotlight. Should the Gold buyers manage to keep the reins past $2,000, the 61.8% Fibonacci Expansion (FE) of the XAU/USD’s moves between November 2022 and February 2023, around $2,018, may act as an extra filter towards the north. Overall, Gold price teases sellers but the road towards the north appears bumpy. Gold price: Daily chart Trend: Further downside expected  

Shunichi Suzuki, Japan´s Finance Minister, has crossed the wires and has stated that Japan's financial system is stable. Key notes Will use reserve fu

Shunichi Suzuki, Japan´s Finance Minister, has crossed the wires and has stated that Japan's financial system is stable. Key notes Will use reserve funds to respond to prices flexibly. Putting together additional price measures. Will coordinate with BoJ, other countries' authorities with various possible risks in mind. Japan's financial system is stable overall. USD/JPY updateUSD/JPY Price Analysis: Bulls are up to test key resistance near 132.60, 50% reversion and support eyedUSd/JPY is on the backside of the prior bear trend and a 50% mean reversion comes in at 131.80 meeting the necklines structure. 

The USD/CNH pair has shown a recovery move near 6.8650 in the Asian session. Despite the recovery move, the major is still inside the woods as investo

USD/CNH has rebounded firmly from 6.8650 but is still inside the woods.Three mid-size US banks collapsed as higher rates from the Fed deteriorated their bulked low-interest bonds in value.Chinese Yuan is expected to get strengthened as retail demand is eyeing pre-pandemic levels.The USD/CNH pair has shown a recovery move near 6.8650 in the Asian session. Despite the recovery move, the major is still inside the woods as investors are awaiting the announcement of the interest rate decision by the Federal Reserve (Fed) for fresh impetus. The asset has been oscillating in a range of 6.8650-6.8850, however, a power-pack action ahead of the Fed’s monetary policy cannot be ruled out. S&P500 futures have delivered a two-day winning spell in times when the United States banking sector is on the cusp of further meltdown. Three mid-size commercial banks collapsed last week as higher rates from the Fed in its battle against stubborn inflation have deteriorated their bulked low-interest bonds in value. The demand for US government bonds remained weak as fresh payout for rescuing First Republic Bank could propel overall liquidity. This led to a jump in the 10-year US Treasury yields to 3.6%. The US Dollar Index (DXY) is attempting to hold itself above 103.20, however, the downside looks favored as the context of pre-Fed anxiety looks missing. The reason might be expected less hawkish monetary policy stance from the Fed as the US inflation is meaningfully on its declining path and restoring of confidence among investors is required amid the banking sector fiasco. Analysts at CIBC are of the view that the Fed opts for a quarter-point hike, dialing down what would have been a 50 bps move in the absence of the past week’s banking events, but likely showing a follow-up quarter-point move in the ‘dots’. Meanwhile, the Chinese Yuan is expected to get strengthened as retail demand is eyeing pre-pandemic levels. Bloomberg reported that consumer spending is increasing again as people are planning trips, dining out, and returning to shopping malls. Still, residents of the world’s second-biggest economy aren’t splashing out like they used to but recovery seems promising.  

EUR/CHF holds lower ground near 0.9930 during sluggish Asian session on early Wednesday, following a pullback from the two-week high the previous day.

EUR/CHF keeps the previous day’s pullback from 13-day high, stays pressured of late.Failure to stay beyond key EMA joins unimpressive oscillators to favor bears.100-EMA appears immediate support; 4.5-month-old horizontal suppot is the key barrier for sellers.EUR/CHF holds lower ground near 0.9930 during a sluggish Asian session on early Wednesday, following a pullback from the two-week high the previous day. The exotic pair rose to the highest levels in more than two weeks the previous day before reversing from 0.9978 as it failed to extend the 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA). The reason could be linked to the unimpressive RSI and MACD signals. With the failure to stay beyond the 200-EMA and lackluster oscillators, namely the RSI (14) and MACD, EUR/CHF is likely to decline further, which in turn highlights the 100-EMA support of 0.9900 as the immediate attraction for the pair sellers. Following that, the 38.2% and 50% Fibonacci retracement level of the pair’s up-move from September 2022 to January 2023, respectively near 0.9835 and 0.9755, will be in focus. It’s worth noting, however, that a broad support zone comprising multiple lows marked since the mid-November 2022, between 0.9705 and 0.9720, appears a tough nut to crack for the EUR/CHF bears to break. On the flip side, a successful break of the 200-EMA becomes necessary for the EUR/CHF bulls to keep the reins. Even so, the 1.0000 psychological magnet and a downward-sloping resistance line from late January, close to 1.0022 by the press time, becomes crucial to challenge the upside moves. EUR/CHF: Daily chart Trend: Further downside expected  

The EUR/JPY pair is displaying topsy-turvy moves in a narrow range around 142.55 in the early Tokyo session. The cross is likely gathering strength fo

EUR/JPY is gathering strength for a fresh upside as Eurozone inflation is likely to remain sticky.Eurozone-ZEW Survey reported a sheer decline to 10.0 after an appreciating spell of five months.The asset has shown a reversal after sensing buying interest around the horizontal resistance-turned-support plotted at 142.22.The EUR/JPY pair is displaying topsy-turvy moves in a narrow range around 142.55 in the early Tokyo session. The cross is likely gathering strength for further upside as the European Central Bank (ECB) would be continued with bigger rates spell to sharpen its monetary tools in the battle against Eurozone’s sticky inflation. ECB President Christine Laragde cited that inflation in Eurozone will be higher for a longer period. The statement is backed by higher wage prices and prolonged supply-chain disruptions amid more than a year longer Russia-Ukraine war.   Meanwhile, the banking sector crisis amid the demise of Credit Suisse has spooked the sentiment of institutional investors. Eurozone-ZEW Survey, released on Tuesday, reported a sheer decline to 10.0 after an appreciating spell of five months. On the Tokyo front, Japanese Chief Cabinet Secretary Hirokazu Matsuno has promised to allocate more than 2 trillion yen from reserves to safeguard households from rising prices, as reported by Reuters. The relief package move would stimulate the overall liquidity in the economy and might support in keeping inflation steady near the desired rate. EUR/JPY has shown a reversal after sensing buying interest around the horizontal resistance-turned-support plotted from March 17 high at 142.22. Upward-sloping 21-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 142.22 indicates more upside ahead. Adding to that, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) (14) is oscillating in the bullish range of 60.00-80.00, which indicates that the upside momentum is already active. Should the asset breaks above March 21 high at 142.79, Euro bulls would drive the cross toward March 09 low around 144.00 followed by March 15 high at 145.00. On the flip side, a downside break below March 20 high at 141.76 would drag the cross toward March 13 low at 139.48. A slippage below the same would expose the asset to January 19 low around 138.00 EUR/JPY hourly chart  

US Dollar Index (DXY) fades the previous day’s corrective bounce off a five-week low as it drops to 103.17 during the initial hours of Wednesday. In d

US Dollar Index fades bounce off one-month low, prints five-day downtrend.US Treasury bond yields retreat despite policymakers’ push for taming fears of banking crisis.Mixed US data, likely dovish rate hike and unclear statements from Powell could weigh on DXY.Fed is expected to announce 0.25% Fed rate hike but dot plot and Chairman Powell’s speech are crucial to watch.US Dollar Index (DXY) fades the previous day’s corrective bounce off a five-week low as it drops to 103.17 during the initial hours of Wednesday. In doing so, the greenback’s gauge versus the six major currency pairs declines for the fifth consecutive day while tracing the inability of the US Treasury bond yields to defend the two-day rebound from the multi-week low as the key Federal Reserve (Fed) decision loom. The DXY managed to bounce off the lowest levels since mid-February the previous day as the market sentiment improved on comments from the US policymakers, as well as actions, to tame the fears emanating from the latest banking fallouts. Also underpinning the US Dollar Index rebound could be the hawkish Fed bets, marking nearly 88% chance of the US central bank’s 0.25% rate hike in today’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) monetary policy meeting. That said, US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen’s comments gained major attention as she said, "Treasury, Fed, FDIC actions reduced risk of further bank failures that would have imposed losses on deposit insurance fund."  Earlier on Tuesday, Bloomberg shared the news stating that the “US officials are studying ways they might temporarily expand Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) coverage to all deposits, a move sought by a coalition of banks arguing that it’s needed to head off a potential financial crisis.” Elsewhere, the US Existing Home Sales for February marked a notable jump of 14.5% versus 0.0% expected and -0.7% prior. However, the Philadelphia Fed Non-Manufacturing Business Outlook survey gauge dropped to -12.8 in March and tamed the US Dollar-linked optimism afterward. As per the latest banking updates, the US policymakers are discussing ways to surpass the US Congress to defend the banks while the First Republic Bank eyes government help to encourage buyers. Against this backdrop, S&P 500 Futures remain directionless at a fortnight high after rising in the last two consecutive days while the US Treasury bond yields struggle to extend two-day rebound from the lowest levels since September 2022. Looking ahead, DXY traders should concentrate on the ways in which the Fed can sound hawkish despite the looming banking crisis and a likely nearness to the policy pivot. Also read: Fed Preview: A dovish last hike? Technical analysis Given the corrective bounce’s failure to provide a daily closing beyond the 50-DMA resistance surrounding 103.45, the US Dollar Index is likely to remain pressured towards the mid-February low near 102.55.  

Australia Westpac Leading Index (MoM) increased to -0.06% in February from previous -0.1%

WTI prices experienced a sharp rebound after finding support around the $64 mark. This relief rally was fueled by US authorities' intervention to addr

WTI Price Rebound: Relief rally amid US intervention in banking turmoil.Russian President Putin welcomed the Chinese proposal for de-escalation in Ukraine.OPEC struggles to maintain elevated oil prices despite production cuts.WTI prices experienced a sharp rebound after finding support around the $64 mark. This relief rally was fueled by US authorities' intervention to address the ongoing banking turmoil. US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen stated on Tuesday that the government is prepared to intervene and provide deposit guarantees to all small US banks if needed amidst the banking crisis. In addition, at the conclusion of Chinese President Xi's state visit to Moscow, a joint statement was issued. Russian President Putin welcomed the Chinese proposal of a 12-point paper calling for a de-escalation and eventual ceasefire in Ukraine, although it lacks details on how to end the war. Putin suggested that Chinese proposals could form the basis of a peace settlement in Ukraine, but noted that the West and Kyiv were not yet prepared. Both of these developments positively impacted risk appetite, causing WTI prices to surge toward the $70 mark. On the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) front, Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak announced on Tuesday that Russia will maintain a 500,000 barrels per day oil production cut until the end of June. In light of the current market situation, the decision to voluntarily reduce production by 500K bpd will remain in effect until June 2023. Despite numerous efforts from OPEC nations, they have been unable to keep oil prices at elevated levels. Major oil traders and energy hedge funds, such as Andurand Capital, have argued that the current oil price downturn is speculative and not based on fundamentals. It will be important to observe how OPEC addresses these corrective declines in oil prices. Levels to watch  

Silver price (XAG/USD) has rebounded firmly from $22.20 in the early Asian session. The white metal has been consolidating in a range of $22.20-22.70

Silver price is auctioning in a 50-pip range for the past two sessions ahead of the interest rate decision by the Fed.The Fed will face a difficult balancing act between banking sector turmoil and persistent inflation.Two-day winning spell by S&P500 indicate that investors’ risk appetite is solid.Silver price (XAG/USD) has rebounded firmly from $22.20 in the early Asian session. The white metal has been consolidating in a range of $22.20-22.70 for the past three trading sessions. The asset is expected to remain inside the woods ahead as pre-Federal Reserve (Fed) anxiety could come into play despite the odds favoring a consecutive 25 basis point (bp) rate hike to 4.75-5.00%. Fed chair Jerome Powell couldn’t take risk of a revival in the inflationary pressures, therefore, the central bank would continue its policy-tightening spell to keep weighing on the Consumer Price Index (CPI). Analysts at Swedbank are sticking with their call that the Fed will hike rates by 25 bps both this week and at its May meeting. They further added, the Fed will, however, face a difficult balancing act between on the one hand being ready to support the financial sector, while also signaling further tightening is on the cards to tame inflation. Commenting on the risk impulse, a two-day winning spell by S&P500 indicates that investors’ risk appetite is solid now, however, caution prevails as fears of a banking sector meltdown are not faded yet. The US Dollar Index (DXY) is juggling near 103.20 after failing to extend its recovery above 103.50. A sheer volatility would be visible in the USD Index if Fed decides to take an unchanged stance on interest rates as it is more versed in the situation of the banking sector. Silver technical forecast Silver price is demonstrating a sideways auction in the 50-pip range for the past two sessions on an hourly scale. The white metal is showing signs of weakness in the upside momentum, which indicates that a corrective move is on cards. The asset is putting efforts into keeping itself above the 20-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $22.40. Meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) (14) is oscillating in the 40.00-60.00 range, which indicates that investors are awaiting a new trigger for further action. Silver hourly chart  

China President Xi Jinping and his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin cemented friendship and jointly criticised the West, which moved to buttress Ukr

China President Xi Jinping and his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin cemented friendship and jointly criticised the West, which moved to buttress Ukraine against Moscow's invasion with nearly $16 billion in financial aid and faster delivery of battle tanks, reported Reuters. Developing story...

EUR/GBP treads water around 0.8810-15, after rising the most in three months, as it braces for the key UK data/events during early Wednesday. In doing

EUR/GBP retreats from the key EMA convergence after rising the most in three months.Steady RSI, easing bearish MACD signals keep buyers hopeful backed by a clear upside break of two-week-old trend line.200-EMA, 61.8% Fibonacci retracement constitutes strong support to challenge bears.EUR/GBP treads water around 0.8810-15, after rising the most in three months, as it braces for the key UK data/events during early Wednesday. In doing so, the cross-currency pair retreats from the convergence of the 21-day and 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA). However, the recent easing in the bearish bias of the MACD signals and steady RSI joins the EUR/GBP pair’s successful break of a two-week-old descending trend line keep the buyers hopeful of crossing the 0.8820 resistance confluence. Following that, a run-up towards the 0.8900 round figure can’t be ruled out. However, a downward-sloping resistance line from mid-February, around 0.8920 by the press time, could challenge the EUR/GBP bulls afterward. On the contrary, pullback moves gain importance if breaking the previous resistance line, around 0.8765 at the latest. EUR/GBP: Daily chart Trend: Further upside expected  

The AUD/JPY trimmed some of its Monday losses on Tuesday and gained 0.16%. The pair formed a bullish harami two-candle pattern that could open the doo

AUD/JPY formed a bullish harami candle pattern, suggesting the pair is upward biased.However, oscillators are still pointing south, so caution is warranted.AUD/JPY Price Analysis: Once it clears 89.00, that would pave the way toward 90.00.The AUD/JPY trimmed some of its Monday losses on Tuesday and gained 0.16%. The pair formed a bullish harami two-candle pattern that could open the door for further gains, but firstly it needs to the region the 89.00 figure. At the time of writing, the AUD/JPY is trading at 88.32, up 0.01% as the Asian session begins.AUD/JPY Price actionOn Monday, the AUD/JPY printed a new YTD low at 87.12, then rallied above the 88.00 mark and registered a huge spinning top candlestick. On Tuesday, price action shrank, as usual, ahead of the US Federal Reserve’s (Fed) monetary policy meeting and formed a hammer. Additionally, price action was well contained within the previous day and formed a bullish harami. That said, the AUD/JPY is headed upward, although oscillators, such as the Relative Strength Index (RSI), stay in bearish territory. Therefore, the AUD/JPY first resistance would be the March 21 high at 88.50, followed by the 89.00 mark. Once broken, the AUD/JPY would challenge the March 20 high at 89.23. A breach of the latter will expose the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 89.67. ahead of reaching 90.00. In an alternate scenario, an AUD/JPY bearish continuation could happen if the pair dives below the March 21 lows of 87.71, putting into play a fall toward new YTD lows at 87.12.AUD/JPY Daily chartAUD/JPY Technical levels 

Japan’s Matsuno: Will allocate more than 2 trillion Yen from reserves to cushion blow to economy from rising prices More to come

Japan’s Matsuno: Will allocate more than 2 trillion Yen from reserves to cushion blow to economy from rising prices More to come

The NZD/USD pair has shown a recovery move from 0.6167 and is focusing to recapture the round-level resistance of 0.6200 in the early Asian session. T

NZD/USD is looking to recapture the immediate resistance of 0.6200 amid the risk-on mood.The Fed is preparing for a consecutive 25bp rate hike despite fears of a banking sector meltdown.The demand for US Existing Home Sales soared amid cracked-down prices.The NZD/USD pair has shown a recovery move from 0.6167 and is focusing to recapture the round-level resistance of 0.6200 in the early Asian session. The upside bias in the kiwi asset looks solid despite the Federal Reserve (Fed) is preparing for a consecutive 25 basis point (bp) rate hike for its March monetary policy. S&P500 carry forwarded Monday’s recovery in Tuesday’s session and settled it on a promising note. This portrays a risk-on market mood as investors have digested the continuation of the policy-tightening spree by the Fed. The US Dollar Index (DXY) is struggling in maintaining its auction above 103.20 as investors are still not convinced that a liquidity influx of $30 billion into the First Republic Bank would safeguard it from the debacle. Apart from the interest rate decision, guidance on borrowing rates through the Dot plot, inflation projections, and updates on the banking fiasco will be of utmost importance. Economist at UOB Group Lee Sue Ann suggested the Fed is likely to raise the Fed Funds Target Range by 25 bps at both its March and May gatherings. Fed chair Jerome Powell to bound to bring down the stubborn inflation and it would be interesting to see how he would handle the sticky inflation amid the banking sector shakedown. On Tuesday, a solid recovery in United States Existing Home Sales data conveyed that the demand for real estate is recovering. Existing Home Sales in the US rose by 14.5% in February to an adjusted annual rate of 4.58 million, the National Association of Realtors (NAR) reported. It seems that cracked prices of real estate due to prolonged weaker demand amid higher interest rates have infused confidence among home buyers. Meanwhile, the New Zealand economy is struggling to revive after the flood situation, which resulted in superlative liquidity flush into the economy and a vulnerable growth rate. However, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) would continue to elevate the Official Cash Rate (OCR) to scale down persistent inflation.  

GBP/JPY remains mildly offered near 161.70 as it pares the recent gains ahead of the key day, snapping two-day uptrend at the latest. In doing so, the

GBP/JPY remains sidelined after rising the last two consecutive days.Recovery in yields favors bulls ahead of the key day comprising multiple data/events.Japan’s return from holiday, UK House of Commons vote on Brexit bill and British CPI for February in focus.GBP/JPY remains mildly offered near 161.70 as it pares the recent gains ahead of the key day, snapping two-day uptrend at the latest. In doing so, the cross-currency pair justifies the market’s fears amid negative reception of UK PM Rishi Sunak’s Brexit deal among some of the fellow Conservatives and the European Research Group (ERG). On the same line could be the looming fears of the Bank of England’s (BoE) likely dovish hike as the banking crisis challenges the “Old Lady”, as the UK central bank is informally known. It should be noted that the recovery in the US Treasury bond yields and Tuesday’s holiday in Japanese markets allowed the quote to remain firmer of late. That said, the US 10-year and two-year Treasury bond yields stretched late Monday’s bounce off the lowest levels since September 2022 to 3.60% and 4.18% respectively. While tracing the latest rebound in the bond coupons, the comments from the US policymakers, as well as actions, to tame the fears emanating from the latest banking fallouts gain major attention. Among them, US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen’s comments gained major attention as she said, "Treasury, Fed, FDIC actions reduced risk of further bank failures that would have imposed losses on deposit insurance fund."  Earlier on Tuesday, Bloomberg shared the news stating that the “US officials are studying ways they might temporarily expand Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) coverage to all deposits, a move sought by a coalition of banks arguing that it’s needed to head off a potential financial crisis.” It should be noted that the talks of the US authorities discussing ways to surpass Congress to defend the banks also seem to have underpinned the yields and the GBP/JPY rebound. However, the cautious mood ahead of today’s UK’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for February, expected 9.8% YoY versus 10.1% prior, prod the bulls. On the same line is the anxiety surroudning Brexit voting in the UK’s House of Commons amid recent rejections from the European Research Group (ERG) and the Democratic Unionist party (DUP). Technical analysis GBP/JPY grinds higher between a one-month-old descending resistance line and an ascending support line from mid-January, respectively near 163.30 and 160.75 in that order.  

USD/JPY finds some respite on the back of rising US Treasury (UST) bond yields. U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen informed bankers on Tuesday that

USD/JPY gains ground, as the rising US Treasury yields boost the currency pair.FOMC meeting takes center stage with markets converging on a 25 bps rate hike consensus.Banking development and diplomatic developments supporting USD/JPY resurgence.USD/JPY finds some respite on the back of rising US Treasury (UST) bond yields. U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen informed bankers on Tuesday that she is ready to intervene to protect depositors in smaller U.S. banks amid contagion concerns. The strong commitment from US officials has ignited a positive risk appetite, leading Wall Street to close Tuesday on a positive note. UST yields experienced a strong bounce as investors moved away from bonds and into riskier assets. Tuesday's upbeat sentiment received additional support from a meeting between Chinese President Xi and Russian President Putin. Putin suggested that Chinese proposals could form the basis of a peace settlement, but noted that the West and Kyiv were not yet prepared. Investors' attention has now shifted to the FOMC meeting on Wednesday, as volatility subsided due to increased stability in the banking sector. Markets are pricing in an 85% chance of a 25-basis-point (bps) rate hike from the Federal Reserve (Fed). Despite the ongoing banking turmoil, the market is finding consensus for a 25 bps rate hike, following the argument that liquidity injections and rate hikes can both occur simultaneously. It is likely that the US Treasury will take measures to support deposit guarantees, despite opposition from some senators. However, such a support plan must first pass through the parliamentary process. Given that the summary of projections for the upcoming Fed meeting was conducted before the banking turmoil, the focus will shift to the accompanying statement and dot plots. The most crucial aspect will likely be the opening remark during Fed Chair Powell's press conference and his assessment of the ongoing banking crisis. Any indication of a pause in rate hikes is expected to be positive for risk assets. Levels to watch  

USD/CHF erased Monday’s gains and fell below crucial technical indicators on Tuesday. A risk-on impulse and a soft UD Dollar (USD) were the main reaso

USD/CHF turns neutral bearish after dropping below the 50/20 day EMAs.USD/CHF Price Analysis: Downward is biased in the near term and might fall beneath 0.9200.USD/CHF erased Monday’s gains and fell below crucial technical indicators on Tuesday. A risk-on impulse and a soft UD Dollar (USD) were the main reasons for the USD/CHF pair fall. At the time of writing, the USD/CHF is exchanging hands at 0.9222.USD/CHF Price actionFrom the daily chart perspective, the USD/CHF remains neutral-to-downward biased. After falling below the 50 and 20-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs) at 0.9290 and 0.9273, the USD/CHF accelerated its downfall toward the current exchange rates. Consequently, oscillators turned bearish, meaning the USD/CHF could dive toward the March 15 low at 0.9122. The USD/CHF 4-hour chart portrays the pair as downward biased after breaking below the 0.9239-0.9317 range. Furthermore, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is bearish, while the Rate of Change (RoC) shows sellers are in charge. Therefore, the USD/CHF first support would be the 0.9200 figure. A breach of the latter will expose the S1 daily pivot at 0.9182, followed by the S2 pivot at 0.9142 and the 0.9100 mark. In an alternate scenario, the USD/CHF first resistance would be the daily pivot at 0.9250, followed by the R1 pivot point at 0.9288, before testing 0.9300.USD/CHF 4-hour chartUSD/CHF Technical levels 

USD/CAD grinds near 1.3715-20 as it resists welcoming bulls during the initial hours of the Federal Reserve (Fed) day. In doing so, the Loonie pair st

USD/CAD struggles to defend the bounce off two-week low inside short-term triangle.Convergence of 50-SMA, triangle’s top line challenge Loonie pair buyers.Bears have a bumpy road to travel before retaking control.Sustained trading beyond key SMA, bullish chart pattern and absence of momentum-negative oscillators favor buyers.USD/CAD grinds near 1.3715-20 as it resists welcoming bulls during the initial hours of the Federal Reserve (Fed) day. In doing so, the Loonie pair struggles to extend the previous day’s recovery moves from the lowest levels in a fortnight inside a two-week-old descending triangle formation. That said, the quote’s latest hesitance could be linked to the failure to cross the 1.3730 resistance confluence including the 50-SMA and upper line of the stated triangle. However, the Loonie pair’s ability to provide successful trading above the key SMAs joins the bullish MACD signals and firmer RSI (14), not overbought, keeps the USD/CAD bulls hopeful of overcoming the 1.3730 hurdle. In that case, the buyers could aim for the monthly high surrounding 1.3865, with the 1.3800 round figure acting as an intermediate halt, before portraying a run-up towards the previous yearly top of 1.3977 and then to the 1.4000 psychological magnet. On the flip side, the USD/CAD bears need validation from the stated triangle’s lower line, close to 1.3650. Even so, the 200-SMA support near 1.3575 appears a crucial challenge for the sellers to tackle. It’s worth noting that the 100-SMA can offer immediate support near 1.3695. Overall, USD/CAD is likely to remain firmer but the immediate pullback can’t be ruled out. USD/CAD: Four-hour chart Trend: Further upside expected  

Gold price sold off nicely on Tuesday in textbook fashion as the technical analysis below illustrates. The yellow metal dropped from a high of $1,970

Gold bulls are being squeezed in a strong bearish correction. All eyes turn to the Fed as the next catalyst. Gold price sold off nicely on Tuesday in textbook fashion as the technical analysis below illustrates. The yellow metal dropped from a high of $1,970 and melted into a low of $1,935. The fall follows a move up above $2,000 intraday Monday, the highest level since Russia's invasion of Ukraine early last year. Gold prices are pressured with the 10-year government bond rebounding on Tuesday, making it more appealing to hold Treasurys than gold as we head into the Federal Reserve interest rate decision on Wednesday. The central bank is expected to raise interest rates by a quarter-percentage point which could further cool gold's rally even further. All in all, it was a risk on tone across markets that has weighed on the Gold price whereby the market now sees a roughly 80% chance of a 25bp hike. However, analysts at ANZ Bank argued that ´´this would ultimately support the precious metals sector.´´ Meanwhile, analysts at TD Securities argued that, ´´looking forward, we still could see substantial CTA buying activity above the $2,045 mark, but the journey towards this key trigger level will require additional discretionary interest. This puts the focus on the Fed meeting, where we expect a dovish 25bp hike.´´ ´´In contrast,´´ they said, ´´we could see some marginal selling activity below the $1,950 mark, but expect that the combination of strong physical demand and resurgent investor flows should keep prices from tumbling.´´ Gold technical analysis In the prior analysis, above, it was stated that ´´the Gold price could be forming a topping pattern in the right-hand shoulder of the head and shoulders on the 4 and 1-hour charts: Gold price update The head and shoulders played out and now the price is on the backside of a critical trendline. However, there are prospects of a meanwhile correction into the Fibonacci scale prior to the next surge to the downside. 

The EUR/USD pair has turned sideways in the early Tokyo session after printing a fresh five-week high at 1.0788 on Tuesday. The major currency pair ha

EUR/USD is juggling around 1.0780, gathering strength for a fresh upside.Odds are favoring that the Fed would go for hiking rates despite knowing the banking sector debacle.Eurozone-ZEW Survey dropped to 10.0 after a five-month rising spell.The EUR/USD pair has turned sideways in the early Tokyo session after printing a fresh five-week high at 1.0788 on Tuesday. The major currency pair has been underpinned despite the odds favoring a 25 basis point (bp) rate hike by the Federal Reserve (Fed). As per the CME Fedwatch tool, more than 87% chances are in favor of a 25 bps rate hike, which would push rates to 4.75-5.00%. The context that has spooked the market’s sentiment is that Fed chair Jerome Powell would go for hiking rates despite knowing the banking sector debacle whose consequences are yet to be faced ahead. Meanwhile, a two-day winning spell by S&P500 has shown that the market is trying hard to revive itself from the banking sector shakedown. The risk appetite theme has also weighed on the US Dollar Index (DXY). The USD Index looks vulnerable above 103.00 and is prone to further downside. On the Eurozone front, the banking sector debacle has hurt the sentiment of the market participants. Eurozone-ZEW Survey that considers the sentiment of institutional investors dropped to 10.0 after a five-month rising spell. EUR/USD is struggling to extend the 50% Fibonacci retracement (placed from February 01 high at 1.1033 to March 15 low at 1.0516) at 1.0776 on a four-hour scale. Usually, a perpendicular rally in an asset is followed by a mean reversion to near the 20-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA), which is hovering around 1.0711, at the time of writing. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) (14) is oscillating in the bullish range of 60.00-80.00, which indicates that the upside momentum is active. For further upside, the shared currency pair needs to surpass the immediate resistance plotted from January 20 low at 1.0802, which will drive the asset toward January 18 high at 1.0887 and the round-level resistance at 1.0900. On the flip side, a downside break below March 17 low at 1.0612 would drag the shared currency pair toward March 16 low at 1.0551, followed by March 15 low at 1.0516. EUR/USD four-hour chart  

GBP/USD stays defensive around 1.2220-10 as the Cable bears struggle to keep the reins after entering the ring for the first time in four days. Also c

GBP/USD picks up bids to reverse the first daily negative close in four, grinds higher of late.Improvement in market sentiment, US Treasury bond yields allow US Dollar to stabilize near multi-day low.Mixed concerns over Brexit deal’s acceptance, hawkish Fed bets tease sellers.UK inflation data for February will be the key ahead of “Super Thursday”.GBP/USD stays defensive around 1.2220-10 as the Cable bears struggle to keep the reins after entering the ring for the first time in four days. Also challenging the quote could be the market’s cautious mood ahead of the key data/events as the Federal Reserve (Fed) decision data begins. The Cable pair’s latest losses could be linked to the improvement in the market’s sentiment and a rebound in the US Treasury bond yields that allowed the US Dollar to pro recent south-run at the five-week low. Behind the moves could be the comments from the US policymakers, as well as actions, to tame the fears emanating from the latest banking fallouts. Among them, US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen’s comments gained major attention as she said, "Treasury, Fed, FDIC actions reduced risk of further bank failures that would have imposed losses on deposit insurance fund."  Earlier on Tuesday, Bloomberg shared the news stating that the “US officials are studying ways they might temporarily expand Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) coverage to all deposits, a move sought by a coalition of banks arguing that it’s needed to head off a potential financial crisis.” Amid these plays, the benchmark Wall Street indices closed with more than 1.0% daily gains each whereas the US 10-year and two-year Treasury bond yields stretched late Monday’s bounce off the lowest levels since September 2022 to 3.60% and 4.18% respectively. Looking ahead, the GBP/USD pair appears more interesting to watch as Brexit voting in the UK’s House of Commons will be crucial amid recent rejections from the European Research Group (ERG) and the Democratic Unionist party (DUP). Also important will be the UK’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for February, expected 9.8% YoY versus 10.1% prior, as the same could hint at the Bank of England’s (BoE) action on the “Super Thursday”. Above all, the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) reaction to the banking crisis will be crucial to watch for clear directions as the 0.25% rate hike is already priced in. Also read: Federal Reserve Preview: Powell to persevere and raise rates, US Dollar set to (temporarily) rise Technical analysis A four-month-old horizontal resistance area surrounding 1.2270-90 challenges the GBP/USD bulls cheering a sustained break of the 50-DMA hurdle surrounding 1.2145.  
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