Forex News Timeline
03:40 GBP/USD remains capped below 1.2470, eyes on US data
The GBP/USD pair trades on a softer note around 1.2450 during the early Asian trading hours on Thursday.
GBP/USD edges lower to 1.2450 in Thursday’s early Asian session. Further easing in UK inflation data prompted the expectation that the BoE will start lowering interest rates this year. Fed Chair Jerome Powell said he will wait longer than previously expected to cut rates after unexpectedly upside inflation readings.The GBP/USD pair trades on a softer note around 1.2450 during the early Asian trading hours on Thursday. The softer UK inflation data prompted the expectation that the Bank of England (BoE) will start lowering interest rates in the coming months, which weighs on the Pound Sterling (GBP) against the Greenback. Investors will take more cues from the US weekly Initial Jobless Claims, the Philly Fed Manufacturing Index, the CB Leading Index, and Existing Home Sales, due on Thursday.
The BoE hinted that the UK is still on course for an interest rate cut, as recent data showed a further easing in the pace of price growth in the economy. On Wednesday, the Office for National Statistics (ONS) showed that the UK Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation dropped to 3.2% in the 12 months to March, the softest level for two-and-a-half years. The figure was down from the previous reading of 3.4%. However, investors expect the first rate cut in August or September, according to the LSEG data.
On the USD’s front, the upbeat February's Retail Sales earlier this week suggested a robust economy in the United States. The report triggered speculation that the Federal Reserve (Fed) might delay its easing cycle this year. The Fed Chair Jerome Powell stated that he will wait longer than previously expected to cut rates after unexpectedly upside inflation readings. Powell added that the US central bank will likely take more time to gain confidence that price growth is headed toward the Fed’s 2% target before lowering borrowing costs. This, in turn, provides some support to the Greenback and caps the upside of the GBP/USD pair. GBP/USD Overview Today last price 1.2451 Today Daily Change -0.0003 Today Daily Change % -0.02 Today daily open 1.2454 Trends Daily SMA20 1.2584 Daily SMA50 1.2647 Daily SMA100 1.2662 Daily SMA200 1.2576 Levels Previous Daily High 1.2482 Previous Daily Low 1.2417 Previous Weekly High 1.2709 Previous Weekly Low 1.2427 Previous Monthly High 1.2894 Previous Monthly Low 1.2575 Daily Fibonacci 38.2% 1.2457 Daily Fibonacci 61.8% 1.2442 Daily Pivot Point S1 1.242 Daily Pivot Point S2 1.2386 Daily Pivot Point S3 1.2355 Daily Pivot Point R1 1.2485 Daily Pivot Point R2 1.2516 Daily Pivot Point R3 1.255
The BoE hinted that the UK is still on course for an interest rate cut, as recent data showed a further easing in the pace of price growth in the economy. On Wednesday, the Office for National Statistics (ONS) showed that the UK Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation dropped to 3.2% in the 12 months to March, the softest level for two-and-a-half years. The figure was down from the previous reading of 3.4%. However, investors expect the first rate cut in August or September, according to the LSEG data.
On the USD’s front, the upbeat February's Retail Sales earlier this week suggested a robust economy in the United States. The report triggered speculation that the Federal Reserve (Fed) might delay its easing cycle this year. The Fed Chair Jerome Powell stated that he will wait longer than previously expected to cut rates after unexpectedly upside inflation readings. Powell added that the US central bank will likely take more time to gain confidence that price growth is headed toward the Fed’s 2% target before lowering borrowing costs. This, in turn, provides some support to the Greenback and caps the upside of the GBP/USD pair. GBP/USD Overview Today last price 1.2451 Today Daily Change -0.0003 Today Daily Change % -0.02 Today daily open 1.2454 Trends Daily SMA20 1.2584 Daily SMA50 1.2647 Daily SMA100 1.2662 Daily SMA200 1.2576 Levels Previous Daily High 1.2482 Previous Daily Low 1.2417 Previous Weekly High 1.2709 Previous Weekly Low 1.2427 Previous Monthly High 1.2894 Previous Monthly Low 1.2575 Daily Fibonacci 38.2% 1.2457 Daily Fibonacci 61.8% 1.2442 Daily Pivot Point S1 1.242 Daily Pivot Point S2 1.2386 Daily Pivot Point S3 1.2355 Daily Pivot Point R1 1.2485 Daily Pivot Point R2 1.2516 Daily Pivot Point R3 1.255
02:50 Japan Foreign Investment in Japan Stocks declined to ¥1740B in April 12 from previous ¥1764.4B
Japan Foreign Investment in Japan Stocks declined to ¥1740B in April 12 from previous ¥1764.4B
02:41 Fed's Bowman: Inflation progress slows and possibly halts
Federal Reserve (Fed) Governor Michelle Bowman said Wednesday that inflation progress slows and possibly halts.
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Federal Reserve (Fed) Governor Michelle Bowman said Wednesday that inflation progress slows and possibly halts. Bowman further stated that monetary policy is currently restrictive and time will tell if it is "sufficiently" restrictive.Key quotes“Inflation progress slows and possibly halts.”
“Strength of consumer spending tied to ongoing job growth.”
“Monetary policy currently restrictive; time will tell if it is "sufficiently" restrictive.”
“Consumers are turning to cheaper goods, but still spending heavily on travel for eclipse viewing.”Market reactionThe US Dollar Index (DXY) is trading 0.01% higher on the day at 105.95, as of writing. Fed FAQs What does the Federal Reserve do, how does it impact the US Dollar? Monetary policy in the US is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these goals is by adjusting interest rates. When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, it raises interest rates, increasing borrowing costs throughout the economy. This results in a stronger US Dollar (USD) as it makes the US a more attractive place for international investors to park their money. When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates to encourage borrowing, which weighs on the Greenback. How often does the Fed hold monetary policy meetings? The Federal Reserve (Fed) holds eight policy meetings a year, where the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) assesses economic conditions and makes monetary policy decisions. The FOMC is attended by twelve Fed officials – the seven members of the Board of Governors, the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, and four of the remaining eleven regional Reserve Bank presidents, who serve one-year terms on a rotating basis. What is Quantitative Easing (QE) and how does it impact USD? In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve may resort to a policy named Quantitative Easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system. It is a non-standard policy measure used during crises or when inflation is extremely low. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy high grade bonds from financial institutions. QE usually weakens the US Dollar. What is Quantitative Tightening (QT) and how does it impact the US Dollar? Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process of QE, whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing, to purchase new bonds. It is usually positive for the value of the US Dollar.
“Strength of consumer spending tied to ongoing job growth.”
“Monetary policy currently restrictive; time will tell if it is "sufficiently" restrictive.”
“Consumers are turning to cheaper goods, but still spending heavily on travel for eclipse viewing.”Market reactionThe US Dollar Index (DXY) is trading 0.01% higher on the day at 105.95, as of writing. Fed FAQs What does the Federal Reserve do, how does it impact the US Dollar? Monetary policy in the US is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these goals is by adjusting interest rates. When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, it raises interest rates, increasing borrowing costs throughout the economy. This results in a stronger US Dollar (USD) as it makes the US a more attractive place for international investors to park their money. When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates to encourage borrowing, which weighs on the Greenback. How often does the Fed hold monetary policy meetings? The Federal Reserve (Fed) holds eight policy meetings a year, where the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) assesses economic conditions and makes monetary policy decisions. The FOMC is attended by twelve Fed officials – the seven members of the Board of Governors, the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, and four of the remaining eleven regional Reserve Bank presidents, who serve one-year terms on a rotating basis. What is Quantitative Easing (QE) and how does it impact USD? In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve may resort to a policy named Quantitative Easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system. It is a non-standard policy measure used during crises or when inflation is extremely low. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy high grade bonds from financial institutions. QE usually weakens the US Dollar. What is Quantitative Tightening (QT) and how does it impact the US Dollar? Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process of QE, whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing, to purchase new bonds. It is usually positive for the value of the US Dollar.
02:29 EUR/USD holds above 1.0650 amid renewed selling pressure in US Dollar
The EUR/USD pair edges higher to 1.0672 on Thursday during the early Asian session.
EUR/USD posts modest gains near 1.0672 on the softer USD on Thursday. Fed’s Powell said the central bank might take longer than expected to achieve the 2% target.ECB policymaker said a rate cut looks increasingly likely in its June meeting. The EUR/USD pair edges higher to 1.0672 on Thursday during the early Asian session. The recovery of that major pair is bolstered by renewed selling pressure in the US Dollar (USD) and a risk-friendly environment. Investors will monitor the usual weekly Initial Jobless Claims, the Philly Fed Manufacturing Index, the CB Leading Index, and Existing Home Sales, due later on Thursday.
The Federal Reserve's (Fed) rate cut hopes were faded. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell commented on Tuesday that the recent data have clearly not given Fed greater confidence and indicate that it's likely to take longer than expected to achieve the central bank's 2% target. The hawkish comments from the Fed’s Powell might provide some support to the Greenback and cap the upside of the EUR/USD in the near term. Investors see a nearly 71% chance that the Fed will cut interest rates in September, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.
On the other hand, investors increase their bets that the European Central Bank (ECB) will cut the interest rate in June. The ECB policymaker Joachim Nagel said on Wednesday that a rate cut looks increasingly likely for June, but certain parts of the incoming inflation data still look higher than desired. Meanwhile, ECB policymaker Bostjan Vasle said that the deposit rate should be lower to 3% by the end of the year from a record high of 4% currently if disinflation continues as expected. Interest rate differentials have been a primary driver of the major pair. The dovish stance from the ECB drags the Euro (EUR) lower and creates a headwind for the EUR/USD pair. EUR/USD Overview Today last price 1.0672 Today Daily Change 0.0053 Today Daily Change % 0.50 Today daily open 1.0619 Trends Daily SMA20 1.0788 Daily SMA50 1.0818 Daily SMA100 1.086 Daily SMA200 1.0826 Levels Previous Daily High 1.0654 Previous Daily Low 1.0601 Previous Weekly High 1.0885 Previous Weekly Low 1.0622 Previous Monthly High 1.0981 Previous Monthly Low 1.0768 Daily Fibonacci 38.2% 1.0621 Daily Fibonacci 61.8% 1.0634 Daily Pivot Point S1 1.0595 Daily Pivot Point S2 1.0572 Daily Pivot Point S3 1.0543 Daily Pivot Point R1 1.0648 Daily Pivot Point R2 1.0677 Daily Pivot Point R3 1.07
The Federal Reserve's (Fed) rate cut hopes were faded. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell commented on Tuesday that the recent data have clearly not given Fed greater confidence and indicate that it's likely to take longer than expected to achieve the central bank's 2% target. The hawkish comments from the Fed’s Powell might provide some support to the Greenback and cap the upside of the EUR/USD in the near term. Investors see a nearly 71% chance that the Fed will cut interest rates in September, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.
On the other hand, investors increase their bets that the European Central Bank (ECB) will cut the interest rate in June. The ECB policymaker Joachim Nagel said on Wednesday that a rate cut looks increasingly likely for June, but certain parts of the incoming inflation data still look higher than desired. Meanwhile, ECB policymaker Bostjan Vasle said that the deposit rate should be lower to 3% by the end of the year from a record high of 4% currently if disinflation continues as expected. Interest rate differentials have been a primary driver of the major pair. The dovish stance from the ECB drags the Euro (EUR) lower and creates a headwind for the EUR/USD pair. EUR/USD Overview Today last price 1.0672 Today Daily Change 0.0053 Today Daily Change % 0.50 Today daily open 1.0619 Trends Daily SMA20 1.0788 Daily SMA50 1.0818 Daily SMA100 1.086 Daily SMA200 1.0826 Levels Previous Daily High 1.0654 Previous Daily Low 1.0601 Previous Weekly High 1.0885 Previous Weekly Low 1.0622 Previous Monthly High 1.0981 Previous Monthly Low 1.0768 Daily Fibonacci 38.2% 1.0621 Daily Fibonacci 61.8% 1.0634 Daily Pivot Point S1 1.0595 Daily Pivot Point S2 1.0572 Daily Pivot Point S3 1.0543 Daily Pivot Point R1 1.0648 Daily Pivot Point R2 1.0677 Daily Pivot Point R3 1.07
02:13 GBP/JPY Price Analysis: Stalls within a tight range around 192.00
The GBP/JPY consolidates at around current exchange rates, unable to break above/below the 191.60/192.80 range, following an inflation report in the UK that sparked a rally in the GBP/USD pair.
GBP/JPY remains confined between 191.60 and 192.80, unable to break through key resistance at 193.00.Technical analysis highlights potential decline towards strong support at 190.00, with key indicators aligning.Immediate technical supports to watch include the Tenkan-Sen at 191.46 and the Kijun-Sen at 191.06.The GBP/JPY consolidates at around current exchange rates, unable to break above/below the 191.60/192.80 range, following an inflation report in the UK that sparked a rally in the GBP/USD pair. Therefore, after finishing Wednesday's session around familiar levels, the cross-currency pair trades at 192.22, virtually unchanged.
GBP/JPY Price Analysis: Technical outlook
The daily chart shows the pair has peaked, as buyers remained unable to crack the 193.00 figure to challenge the year-to-date (YTD) high of 193.53. That opened the door for a dip toward the 190.00 mark, a strong support level, as key technical indicators converged around that area. The April 2 low of 190.03, the 50-day moving average (DMA), and the top of the Ichimoku Cloud (Kumo).
Since then, the GBP/JPY remains subdued. The first resistance would be 193.00, followed by the YTD high. On the flip side, the first support would be 190.00, followed by key support levels. Up next would be the Tenkan-Sen at 191.46, the Senkou Span A at 191.26, and the Kijun-Sen at 191.06.
GBP/JPY Price Action – Daily ChartGBP/JPY Overview Today last price 192.17 Today Daily Change -0.09 Today Daily Change % -0.05 Today daily open 192.26
Trends Daily SMA20 191.61 Daily SMA50 190.42 Daily SMA100 187.34 Daily SMA200 185.39
Levels Previous Daily High 192.82 Previous Daily Low 191.65 Previous Weekly High 193.02 Previous Weekly Low 190 Previous Monthly High 193.54 Previous Monthly Low 187.96 Daily Fibonacci 38.2% 192.37 Daily Fibonacci 61.8% 192.1 Daily Pivot Point S1 191.67 Daily Pivot Point S2 191.08 Daily Pivot Point S3 190.51 Daily Pivot Point R1 192.84 Daily Pivot Point R2 193.41 Daily Pivot Point R3 194
01:57 ECB's Vasle sees rates much closer to 3% at year-end
The European Central Bank (ECB) policymaker Bostjan Vasle said on Wednesday that the deposit rate should be "much closer" to 3% by the end of the year from a record high of 4% currently if disinflation continues as expected.
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The European Central Bank (ECB) policymaker Bostjan Vasle said on Wednesday that the deposit rate should be "much closer" to 3% by the end of the year from a record high of 4% currently if disinflation continues as expected. Key quotes"We should be much closer to 3% towards the end of the year if everything goes according to plan.”
"Some worrying developments in the Middle East.” Market reactionThese comments have little to no market reaction to the Euro. The EUR/USD pair is trading at 1.0672, unchanged on the day. ECB FAQs What is the ECB and how does it influence the Euro? The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy for the region. The ECB primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means keeping inflation at around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is by raising or lowering interest rates. Relatively high interest rates will usually result in a stronger Euro and vice versa. The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde. What is Quantitative Easing (QE) and how does it affect the Euro? In extreme situations, the European Central Bank can enact a policy tool called Quantitative Easing. QE is the process by which the ECB prints Euros and uses them to buy assets – usually government or corporate bonds – from banks and other financial institutions. QE usually results in a weaker Euro. QE is a last resort when simply lowering interest rates is unlikely to achieve the objective of price stability. The ECB used it during the Great Financial Crisis in 2009-11, in 2015 when inflation remained stubbornly low, as well as during the covid pandemic. What is Quantitative tightening (QT) and how does it affect the Euro? Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse of QE. It is undertaken after QE when an economic recovery is underway and inflation starts rising. Whilst in QE the European Central Bank (ECB) purchases government and corporate bonds from financial institutions to provide them with liquidity, in QT the ECB stops buying more bonds, and stops reinvesting the principal maturing on the bonds it already holds. It is usually positive (or bullish) for the Euro.
"Some worrying developments in the Middle East.” Market reactionThese comments have little to no market reaction to the Euro. The EUR/USD pair is trading at 1.0672, unchanged on the day. ECB FAQs What is the ECB and how does it influence the Euro? The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy for the region. The ECB primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means keeping inflation at around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is by raising or lowering interest rates. Relatively high interest rates will usually result in a stronger Euro and vice versa. The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde. What is Quantitative Easing (QE) and how does it affect the Euro? In extreme situations, the European Central Bank can enact a policy tool called Quantitative Easing. QE is the process by which the ECB prints Euros and uses them to buy assets – usually government or corporate bonds – from banks and other financial institutions. QE usually results in a weaker Euro. QE is a last resort when simply lowering interest rates is unlikely to achieve the objective of price stability. The ECB used it during the Great Financial Crisis in 2009-11, in 2015 when inflation remained stubbornly low, as well as during the covid pandemic. What is Quantitative tightening (QT) and how does it affect the Euro? Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse of QE. It is undertaken after QE when an economic recovery is underway and inflation starts rising. Whilst in QE the European Central Bank (ECB) purchases government and corporate bonds from financial institutions to provide them with liquidity, in QT the ECB stops buying more bonds, and stops reinvesting the principal maturing on the bonds it already holds. It is usually positive (or bullish) for the Euro.
01:44 Fed's Mester: More information needed before confirming 2% inflation sustainability
Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland President Loretta Mester spoke on "An update from the Federal Reserve” on Thursday.
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“Inflation slightly higher than anticipated this year.”
“Confidence needed that inflation is decreasing.”
“Strong labor markets, solid economic growth.”
“Watching and gathering more information before taking action.”
“Monetary policy well-positioned.”
“Possible rate cut if labor markets worsen.”
“Anticipates a shift to eased policy.”
“Watching risks to both mandates.”Market reactionThe US Dollar Index (DXY) is trading 0.02% lower on the day at 105.92, as of writing. Fed FAQs What does the Federal Reserve do, how does it impact the US Dollar? Monetary policy in the US is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these goals is by adjusting interest rates. When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, it raises interest rates, increasing borrowing costs throughout the economy. This results in a stronger US Dollar (USD) as it makes the US a more attractive place for international investors to park their money. When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates to encourage borrowing, which weighs on the Greenback. How often does the Fed hold monetary policy meetings? The Federal Reserve (Fed) holds eight policy meetings a year, where the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) assesses economic conditions and makes monetary policy decisions. The FOMC is attended by twelve Fed officials – the seven members of the Board of Governors, the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, and four of the remaining eleven regional Reserve Bank presidents, who serve one-year terms on a rotating basis. What is Quantitative Easing (QE) and how does it impact USD? In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve may resort to a policy named Quantitative Easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system. It is a non-standard policy measure used during crises or when inflation is extremely low. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy high grade bonds from financial institutions. QE usually weakens the US Dollar. What is Quantitative Tightening (QT) and how does it impact the US Dollar? Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process of QE, whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing, to purchase new bonds. It is usually positive for the value of the US Dollar.
“Inflation slightly higher than anticipated this year.”
“Confidence needed that inflation is decreasing.”
“Strong labor markets, solid economic growth.”
“Watching and gathering more information before taking action.”
“Monetary policy well-positioned.”
“Possible rate cut if labor markets worsen.”
“Anticipates a shift to eased policy.”
“Watching risks to both mandates.”Market reactionThe US Dollar Index (DXY) is trading 0.02% lower on the day at 105.92, as of writing. Fed FAQs What does the Federal Reserve do, how does it impact the US Dollar? Monetary policy in the US is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these goals is by adjusting interest rates. When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, it raises interest rates, increasing borrowing costs throughout the economy. This results in a stronger US Dollar (USD) as it makes the US a more attractive place for international investors to park their money. When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates to encourage borrowing, which weighs on the Greenback. How often does the Fed hold monetary policy meetings? The Federal Reserve (Fed) holds eight policy meetings a year, where the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) assesses economic conditions and makes monetary policy decisions. The FOMC is attended by twelve Fed officials – the seven members of the Board of Governors, the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, and four of the remaining eleven regional Reserve Bank presidents, who serve one-year terms on a rotating basis. What is Quantitative Easing (QE) and how does it impact USD? In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve may resort to a policy named Quantitative Easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system. It is a non-standard policy measure used during crises or when inflation is extremely low. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy high grade bonds from financial institutions. QE usually weakens the US Dollar. What is Quantitative Tightening (QT) and how does it impact the US Dollar? Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process of QE, whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing, to purchase new bonds. It is usually positive for the value of the US Dollar.
00:49 NZD/USD Price Analysis: Downward trend likely to continue despite indicators recovering
The NZD/USD stands recovered to 0.5919, it seeing 0.60% gains.
The RSI on the daily chart lies deep in negative terrain but recovered.The hourly RSI paints a growing buying momentum, trending the positive territory.The MACD on both charts signals a less intense selling momentum.The NZD/USD stands recovered to 0.5919, it seeing 0.60% gains. The dominant sentiment remains bearish, subtly dominated by sellers due to the consistent positioning beneath key Simple Moving Averages (SMAs). However, indicators on the daily and hourly charts seem to be recovering.
On the daily chart, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) demonstrates a negative sentiment as it continues an under-50 trend. Although there was a slight uptick from the recent low point seen on Monday, the RSI remains in deep in negative territory. Moreover, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) displays falling red bars, reinforcing a weakening bearish momentum.
NZD/USD daily chart
The hourly chart presents an interesting contrast. Here, recent RSI readings consistently float above 50, marking a positive territory. The latest reading is 57, revealing that buyers are taking the reins on the hourly scale. The MACD histogram echoes the buying momentum printing rising green bars.
NZD/USD hourly chart
Upon examining the long-term trend, it becomes apparent that the NZD/USD exhibits bearish momentum as it slots below the 20-day, 100-day, and 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) indicators. So any movements which keeps the pair beneath these levels shouldn't be considered as a clear buying signal.
NZD/USD Overview Today last price 0.5917 Today Daily Change 0.0037 Today Daily Change % 0.63 Today daily open 0.588
Trends Daily SMA20 0.5993 Daily SMA50 0.6075 Daily SMA100 0.6132 Daily SMA200 0.6062
Levels Previous Daily High 0.5908 Previous Daily Low 0.5868 Previous Weekly High 0.6079 Previous Weekly Low 0.5933 Previous Monthly High 0.6218 Previous Monthly Low 0.5956 Daily Fibonacci 38.2% 0.5884 Daily Fibonacci 61.8% 0.5893 Daily Pivot Point S1 0.5863 Daily Pivot Point S2 0.5846 Daily Pivot Point S3 0.5823 Daily Pivot Point R1 0.5902 Daily Pivot Point R2 0.5925 Daily Pivot Point R3 0.5942
00:30 Australia unemployment rate expected to rise back to 3.9% in March as February boost fades
Australia will publish its monthly employment report first thing Thursday.
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Australia reports the monthly Employment Change split into full-time and part-time positions. Generally speaking, full-time jobs imply working 38 hours per week or more and usually include additional benefits, but they mostly represent consistent income. On the other hand, part-time employment generally means higher hourly rates but lacks consistency and benefits. That’s why the economy prefers full-time jobs.
Scrutinizing the impressive February headline, Australia created 38.3K part-time roles and added a whopping 78.2K full-time ones. “The large increase in employment in February followed larger-than-usual numbers of people in December and January who had a job that they were waiting to start or to return to. This translated into a larger-than-usual flow of people into employment in February and even more so than February last year,” according to the official ABS report.
Australian unemployment rate expected to bounce back in March
Market analysts anticipate the Australian Unemployment Rate increased to 3.9% in March after declining to 3.7% in February. As mentioned before, the country is expected to have added 7.2K new jobs following 116.5K positions added in February.
The labor sector in Australia has remained relatively strong over the past few months, although, opposite to other major counterparts, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) does not seem to care about whether the job market remains tight.
As widely anticipated, the RBA kept its policy rate unchanged for the third straight meeting at 4.35% when it met in March. For a change, policymakers scrapped any reference to possible further increases, pushing AUD/USD lower.
“If our forecasts come true, and I really hope we’re on that narrow path that Phil (Lowe - former RBA Governor) used to talk about, then we can slow the economy enough that it preserves a lot of the gains in employment and brings inflation down,” Governor Michele Bullock noted, following the central bank meeting. The Board is hopeful they will head into a soft landing as long as inflation remains subdued.
The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) publishes the Consumer Price Index (CPI) quarterly. According to the latest release, the CPI rose 0.6% in the last quarter of 2023 and 4.1% in the 12 months to December 2023. The RBA’s inflation goal is between 2% and 3%.
It is worth mentioning that wage growth is reported separately. The ABS also offers a quarterly report, with the latest showing the seasonally adjusted Wage Price Index (WPI) rose 0.9% in the last quarter of 2023 and 4.2% over the year. At this point, wage growth continues to outstrip inflation, but it's not something to care about today.
When will the Australian employment report be released, and how could it affect AUD/USD?
The ABS will publish the February employment report on Thursday. As previously stated, Australia is expected to have created 7.2K new jobs in March, while the Unemployment Rate is foreseen at 3.9%. The Participation Rate was reported at 66.7% in February.
The tepid job creation and the modest uptick in the Unemployment Rate should not be a problem for the RBA. A much stronger than-anticipated report, however, may be read as a delay in rate cuts. The market isn’t rushing to bet on it, which means the Aussie will likely take advantage against the US Dollar in such a scenario.
A poor outcome on the contrary, and given broad USD strength, AUD/USD may fall to fresh 2024 lows.
From a technical perspective, Valeria Bednarik, Chief Analyst at FXStreet, notes: “The AUD/USD pair set a fresh 2024 low on Tuesday at 0.6388, as broad US Dollar demand in a risk-averse environment dominates financial boards. The pair is up ahead of the announcement, but the advance seems corrective. Speculative interest is adjusting rate-cut expectations while digesting the latest Middle East developments. The modest improvement in sentiment is short of confirming fears are gone, which means the case for a lower low is alive and kicking.”
Bednarik adds: “AUD/USD is bearish, given that it is developing below all its moving averages in the daily chart. The 20 Simple Moving Average (SMA) heads firmly south below the 100 and 200 SMAs and over 100 pips above the current level, reflecting bears’ strength. Technical indicators recovered modestly from oversold readings but lack momentum enough to confirm an interim bottom. AUD/USD has near-term support at 0.6410, followed by the aforementioned 2024 low. Once below the latter, the slide could extend initially towards 0.6350, en route to 0.6315. On the contrary, immediate resistance can be found at 0.6470, followed by the 0.6530 pierce zone. It is worth adding that, once the dust settles and in the case of a bullish run, sellers may take their chances to keep the pair in the bearish path.”
Australian Dollar FAQs What key factors drive the Australian Dollar?
One of the most significant factors for the Australian Dollar (AUD) is the level of interest rates set by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). Because Australia is a resource-rich country another key driver is the price of its biggest export, Iron Ore. The health of the Chinese economy, its largest trading partner, is a factor, as well as inflation in Australia, its growth rate and Trade Balance. Market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – is also a factor, with risk-on positive for AUD. How do the decisions of the Reserve Bank of Australia impact the Australian Dollar?
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) influences the Australian Dollar (AUD) by setting the level of interest rates that Australian banks can lend to each other. This influences the level of interest rates in the economy as a whole. The main goal of the RBA is to maintain a stable inflation rate of 2-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively high interest rates compared to other major central banks support the AUD, and the opposite for relatively low. The RBA can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former AUD-negative and the latter AUD-positive. How does the health of the Chinese Economy impact the Australian Dollar?
China is Australia’s largest trading partner so the health of the Chinese economy is a major influence on the value of the Australian Dollar (AUD). When the Chinese economy is doing well it purchases more raw materials, goods and services from Australia, lifting demand for the AUD, and pushing up its value. The opposite is the case when the Chinese economy is not growing as fast as expected. Positive or negative surprises in Chinese growth data, therefore, often have a direct impact on the Australian Dollar and its pairs. How does the price of Iron Ore impact the Australian Dollar?
Iron Ore is Australia’s largest export, accounting for $118 billion a year according to data from 2021, with China as its primary destination. The price of Iron Ore, therefore, can be a driver of the Australian Dollar. Generally, if the price of Iron Ore rises, AUD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Iron Ore falls. Higher Iron Ore prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance for Australia, which is also positive of the AUD. How does the Trade Balance impact the Australian Dollar?
The Trade Balance, which is the difference between what a country earns from its exports versus what it pays for its imports, is another factor that can influence the value of the Australian Dollar. If Australia produces highly sought after exports, then its currency will gain in value purely from the surplus demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase its exports versus what it spends to purchase imports. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens the AUD, with the opposite effect if the Trade Balance is negative.
Economic Indicator
Unemployment Rate s.a.
The Unemployment Rate, released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics, is the number of unemployed workers divided by the total civilian labor force, expressed as a percentage. If the rate increases, it indicates a lack of expansion within the Australian labor market and a weakness within the Australian economy. A decrease in the figure is seen as bullish for the Australian Dollar (AUD), while an increase is seen as bearish. Read more. Next release: Thu Apr 18, 2024 01:30 Frequency: MonthlyConsensus: 3.9%Previous: 3.7%Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics Why it matters to traders?
The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) publishes an overview of trends in the Australian labour market, with unemployment rate a closely watched indicator. It is released about 15 days after the month end and throws light on the overall economic conditions, as it is highly correlated to consumer spending and inflation. Despite the lagging nature of the indicator, it affects the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) interest rate decisions, in turn, moving the Australian dollar. Upbeat figure tends to be AUD positive.
00:19 Silver Price Analysis: XAG/USD wavers, clings to gains above $28.00
Silver’s prices remain in positive territory but continued to register higher tails in the daily chart, signaling buyers' failure to commit to higher prices above the May 18, 2021, high of $28.74.
Silver edges higher, showing resilience with a 0.50% gain, yet faces tough resistance near $28.74.Technical analysis suggests potential pullback risks with $28.00 as a pivotal level; further support at $27.59 and $27.00.Upside momentum could resume if prices surpass $28.28, targeting higher resistance points at $28.74 and potentially $29.00.Silver’s prices remain in positive territory but continued to register higher tails in the daily chart, signaling buyers' failure to commit to higher prices above the May 18, 2021, high of $28.74. At the time of writing, XAG/USD trades at $28.21 and gains 0.50%.
XAG/USD Price Analysis: Technical outlook
The daily chart depicts the grey metal as upward biased even though it’s retreating below the crucial resistance level, exposing the significant $28.00 figure. Once that level is cleared, it could potentially lead to a significant shift in the market dynamics. Silver’s next support would be the April 15 low of $27.59 ahead of $27.00. Once that level is taken out, the next demand zone would be the December 4, 2023, high turned support at $25.91.
On the other hand, if buyers lift XAG/USD prices back above June 10, 2021, high at $28.28, it could clear the path to test $28.74. A breach of the latter will expose $29.00, followed by the year-to-date (YTD) high at $29.79.
XAG/USD Price Action – Daily ChartXAG/USD Overview Today last price 28.2 Today Daily Change 0.10 Today Daily Change % 0.36 Today daily open 28.1
Trends Daily SMA20 26.44 Daily SMA50 24.58 Daily SMA100 24.03 Daily SMA200 23.65
Levels Previous Daily High 29.02 Previous Daily Low 27.95 Previous Weekly High 29.8 Previous Weekly Low 26.88 Previous Monthly High 25.77 Previous Monthly Low 22.51 Daily Fibonacci 38.2% 28.36 Daily Fibonacci 61.8% 28.61 Daily Pivot Point S1 27.7 Daily Pivot Point S2 27.3 Daily Pivot Point S3 26.64 Daily Pivot Point R1 28.76 Daily Pivot Point R2 29.42 Daily Pivot Point R3 29.82
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